Hi, everyone, I’m Giovanni, and today with
us, prominent trader and YouTuber Erik Crown
and the CEO at BitBull Capital, Joe DiPasquale,
who will be discussing the latest crypto market
updates. Hi, guys, how are you doing?
Hey, Gio, glad to be back here. Good to meet
you, Joe. And pleasure to be back here, man.
Great to talk with you guys.
Let’s talk about the price first. So Bitcoin
is currently hovering around $8,000 benchmark
and the outlook is not looking good, according
to most analysts. Joe, in a recent interview
with Forbes, you identified the key support
now at $7,750, which, if it breaks, would
potentially cause Bitcoin to go as low as
$6,000. Do you still believe so?
I do, Giovanni, let me show you a quick analysis
I did on trading view. We see that about a
week or so ago we saw, well, two weeks ago
we saw the price drop. Then what we see here
is Bitcoin trying to break out of this descending
triangle. The $7,750 line you’re talking about
is this blue line here. We did see the price
kind of rise in the last day, try to break
out of this triangle. But instead of being
able to really break this resistance line
or how this resistance line become a support
line and continue to grow, we’re seeing the
pressure kind of be too much for Bitcoin to
break out of. So I do see, yes, my prediction
is that the price of Bitcoin will continue
to fall down into this descending triangle.
And if it breaks $7,750, yes, I do believe
that we’re in trouble and it could go down
to $6,000 to answer your question.
Great. And Erik, how do you see these predictions?
Do you agree with this kind of analysis?
Yeah, I think my numbers would be a little
bit different. I can share my screen right
now, but mostly the same, realistically speaking.
To me, the most important area for Bitcoin
is this blue moving average right here. That’s
a 377 exponential moving average, which is
very, very, very, very, very important for
a long term trend notification.
If we do break this, which is a little bit
above where Joe was saying, I put about $7,850
region, then I consider this as redistribution
right here and we’re getting ready for the
I’m not sure if I would directly target like
$6,000 if we broke that region. I do believe
it’d be more appropriate to take it one step
at a time. I do believe that we’d probably
find a nice little bouncy bounce somewhere
in this pocket right here between about $6,900
to $7,100 region back down from our middle
May lows. In fact, what’s really important
to me is looking at a corollary of Bitcoin
in GBDC. We already do see GBDC kind of taking
that next leg down. We saw the same consolidation
right here at the what would be the $8,000
level and GBDC broke it to the downside already
as of a couple days ago. And we actually have
seen GBDC precipitate these moves on Bitcoin
plenty times in the past over this last few
years. So what does make me think or what
does make me continue be bearish here is not
only just price action structure, but, you
know, GBDC showing the kind of way as well.
As long as we are below this white moving
average. that’s a 200-day moving average.
I know I’d be looking for attenuation, essentially.
And so going back to Bitcoin right here, you
know, for myself, the way that I think about
it as a trader isn’t necessarily that, you
know, we’re 100% going down to this next level,
I need to see this level first broken out
about let’s call it $7,900 I’ll say and I
would kind of maintain this as overall more
bearish as long as we’re below $8,700. That’s
where all these major moving averages kind
of converge right here. That’s the 200 simple.
That’s 200 exponential moving average.
And that’s the yellow twenty exponential moving
average right here, which price action had
a pretty awful rejection from it over the
weekends. So to me that tells me that the
bottom angles within this market are angled
to be on the sell side of this equation. And
if they are, what this kind of precipitates
into is swell. If we put on if we take off
everything but these two moving averages right
here, we’re going to be looking at a death
cross between what you’re looking at exponentials
or simples, exponentials or the green 55 and
the purple 200. Those are those on a collision
course as long as are below about $8,700,
putting more and more downward pressure on
price action. That probably happens in the
next week and a half, if those do cross and
the simples will cross sooner than that, they’ll
probably cross in the next week I’d say. Assuming
that we do stay below $8,700. So both these
things would be pretty damning for long term
price action. And that’s when I do think,
you know, Bitcoin likely does break down.
Does it hit that $6,000 level? I don’t really
see too many other things in $6,000 level.
I think actually if it breaks below about
$6,900, I think that will actually be headed
significantly further down towards mid to
low $5,000s. But at that point, you know,
at that point we’re kind of splitting hairs
because realistically, you know, we’re realistically
looking a lot lower if that were to happen.
So I think we’re kind of on the same page
for that, absolutely.
So recently, Bloomberg quoted Jeff Dorman,
chief investment officer at Arca, who said
that “with volumes still quite low relative
to this summer, shorts are incentivized to
keep pushing prices lower until they hit the
resistance.” So do you agree with this analysis
and where do you see a possible resistance?
So because Bitcoin is in a general downtrend,
we do see people, investors, the sentiment
amongst the investors I speak to is more of
a short sentiment, depending on the type of
investor, of course. So that perpetuates the
cycle lower and lower and till people will
not stop shorting until there’s a bullish
sign, right? And then a trigger. Think of.
Interest rates dropping more or more trade
wars or other things that might be a catalyst,
although in the short term, I think, you know,
things like Zuckerberg’s testimony to Congress
next week is a bearish sign. So what I would
be wary of, though, as an investor is a short
squeeze, because if Bitcoin does, let’s say,
as both Erik and I predict go down to $7,750
or $7,500, we’re going to see a short squeeze,
perhaps, people trying to cover their shorts,
buying Bitcoin, the price shooting up, and
perhaps people getting in trouble because
they’re not able to cover their shorts or
get washed out of their shorts. So but yes,
I do continue to see this trend of shorting
until there is bearish news. I mean, bullish
news that could even be you know, we see that
halvening next next year or something else
like that. There’s a number of reasons that
bullishness could happen.
Yeah. So as far as levels that I’d be watching,
assuming that we do break down here, it’s
always a probability until we actually do
take out that $7,850ish region, I’d be looking
at first and foremost, $6,800 to $7,000 region
as a first potential area. Then I’ll be looking
at actually let me pull my screen right here,
that’s going to make a lot more sense with
an example. And then I’ll be looking actually
much lower after that. So what the next levels
to me also just gained off of the volume profile
right here, shown a little bit of activity
at the high $6,000 region. Then again, if
we pulled out a little bit more back, you
know, after that, you know, realistically,
fives and fours, that’s kind of where I’m
looking towards. Even then on a weekly the
major moving averages that I’ll be looking
at down around that region is the 200 exponential
moving average right here. That’s gonna be
protecting price action somewhere right around
But this all again comes into the conversation
if those next levels get hit. So I always
take it one step at a time. As a trader, I
am not in any way, shape or form saying that
Bitcoin is definitely going down to $5,000,
anything like that. I think that, you know,
if we take the next leg down set, you know,
$6,800 to $7,000, you treat it as a potential
reversal when it happens, see if there’s any
sort of, you know, divert and science, if
there’s any sort of lost momentum. And then
if the bounce fails, like we’ve seen for the
last couple of months, then you can start
talking those next levels. So that’s what
I’d say about that. As far as the director
of Arca’s statements, I’m a little bit unsure
of, it sounds like, what he’s saying shorts
are going to continue to short until it’s
not profitable anymore, which, yeah, I agree
with it, I’d mostly agree with that.
Despite the pullback in price experienced
by Bitcoin since last June, the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange claims that institutional investors
opened interest in their Bitcoin futures remains
strong and it’s actually over 60% higher than
a year ago. So, Joe, what is the logic institutional
investors are following? Are they accumulating
Well, I have a multi-pronged answer for you.
So, yes, you’re exactly right. Do institutional
investors, you know, what value do they accumulate
on lows? Absolutely. So that’s when we see
their accumulations. But as Erik was saying,
the volume, you know, the volume has been
low recently. So even amongst these lows into
the $7Ks. So, yes, the institutional investors
I speak to are accumulating on these dips.
That’s absolutely happening. Whether it’s
through GBDC or direct purchases of futures
or Bitcoin itself, I still, from the institutions
I speak to, see a lot of interest in accumulating
Bitcoin at low points. Still, I think, you
know, we’ve seen the relatively soft launch
of Bakkt and other products and there’s still
lower volume in this moment than that I think
would be a good sign otherwise.
And Erik, what do you think about it?
Right. So when he’s saying that it doesn’t
necessarily imply that those people are buying.
You know when we’re talking about trading
going on, they could be also shorting, they
could be also selling. You know, that still
counts as a trade. That still counts in the
bull metric. So when he says something like
that, it’s direction neutral, doesn’t really
tell you too much about that, unfortunately.
What I can say, though, is about bigger accounts.
If I pull up this right here, this was a pretty
interesting study done. I want to give credit
to this. This was Glassnote on Twitter. I
don’t know him personally, but pretty damn
cool that he put this out. And this is the
amount of Bitcoin addresses holding more than
1,000 Bitcoin in their wallets. So we can
effectively say these people are, you know,
these are whales in a sense. You know, this
is around like 10 million bucks or more. And
the number of wallets has been drastically
rising. Which you would think is a good sign,
actually, which it is long term a good sign.
But for the short term price action, think
about it. Big accounts are not going to be
accumulating during an uptrend. They’re going
to be accumulating in the downtrend, they
are essentially the people who put in the
low these institutions here, you know, deal
with big amounts of money.
And you’ll notice that every time that this
gets accumulated a lot more and every time
that we see a massive tyrannic rise in this,
that precipitates pretty massive drops, actually,
which is kind of counterintuitive thing, you
know, at the outset. But when you really start
to think about it, of course, you know, whales
aren’t going to be accumulating when price
action is coming down. That’s the whole idea.
And they’re going to be distributing when
price is going up. So you see during 2016
to 2018 right here, we actually lost a few
of those bigger wallet addresses. So overall,
this would suggest that, yes, bigger players
are accumulating, but that doesn’t necessarily
mean that, you know, we just stop and reverse
this from this exact moment right here. I
mean, I just want to point my attention back
towards this first major splurge in late 2018,
which I’m sure everyone probably remembers
was during October, November. A lot of people
in YouTube talking about this, but just a
few days later, Bitcoin got halved. It went
from $6,000 to $3,000, essentially. And so
it wasn’t until we saw Wall Street to go sideways
and where we actually did put in a low. So
I would say it’s correct, but actually the
indications of it are kind of backwards in
So according to a recent Bloomberg article,
Bitcoin is no longer seen as the driving force
in the crypto market. The article reports
data by alternative data provider Indexica,
according to which the Bitcoin drop due to
the growing cryptocurrency ecosystem such
as emerging new cryptocurrencies and the blockchain
technologies. Do you agree with this analysis?
And why would a growing crypto ecosystem cause
Bitcoin’s price to drop? Shouldn’t it be the
I guess I’ll start, I completely disagree.
Bitcoin’s dominance this year has grown. It’s
at 66% of the total crypto market cap. So
I don’t see any sign of Bitcoin not being
the dominant force in crypto, recognized by
the CFTC and the SEC as a commodity. There’s
ETF attempts, it’s going to continue to be
the dominant crypto asset. There’s others,
so I disagree.
Erik? I would 100% percent disagree and 100%
agree with Joe here, so I’ll share my screen
once again. Anyways, to say that the crypto
ecosystem is growing would imply that the
total market cap would also be expanded as
well, going up. What do we see here on the
total market cap, well, first, the presuppositions
wrong. We’re not growing right now, we’re
actually coming down. We’re having a little
bit of a downtrend. Anyways, if we actually
look at the index for altcoins, which is the
exchange FTX has actually put together so
nicely for us, we can directly look at altcoins
and then kind of compare to Bitcoin and see
what pops up. So I would ask that you go into
this with a clear mind and we’ll just pull
up the first one.
This is the altcoin perp index on a weekly
– straight down. Bitcoin perp index on a weekly
– straight down. Shitcoin perp index on a
weekly – straight down.
Now, admittedly, there’s not enough price
action history here, but compare all these
charts which are pretty much the same with
Bitcoin’s price action from the last few weeks.
You can see that there’s a stark contrast.
So I don’t believe that that’s correct. I
also believe that Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin
is the ecosystem and Bitcoin does fail. I
don’t think that bodes well for any cryptocurrency,
really. Could things change in the future?
Could we see like the next major technology
emerge? Perhaps, yes. But I don’t think that
we’ve seen it thus far. And Bitcoin still
kind of the king, if Bitcoin comes down here
and I expect everything else in this market
to come down, you know, as much or more.
I completely agree with Erik, and Erik, you
reminded me that the macro sense that people
in crypto have the flight to safety is often,
if not to dollars and the Bitcoin. And so
right now, when Erik talks about shitcoins
and other things we’ve seen just such soft
action on the alternative coins, their prices
just generally lowering and lowering and lowering.
It was big news this week when Ethereum broke
$170, which is such a low for it, you know,
just holistically. So yeah, Bitcoin is, especially
amongst the fund managers that I speak to
and invest in, they are often going from the
alternative coins to Bitcoin, then holding
Bitcoin and they’re not shorted, they’re holding
it at this moment.
My general view on altcoins goes something
like this. I don’t really care about altcoins
to begin with, but, you know, there’s probably
going to be some absolutely phenomenally successful
altcoins. Do I know what they are? Nope. I
don’t really spend my time looking at them,
but there are a few that stand out right now.
I think Link actually it’s been for like the
last year and a half. I have no idea what
this thing does, but just this chart complete
stands up from anything else and there’s a
few other ones. But realistically what I’m
looking for when looking at alts, you know,
when people ask me on like on a stream or
some like that, is I want to see a chart that’s
not in like a two to three year straight down
trend. If it doesn’t look like that, it’s
probably OK. And it might withstand the test
Link is amongst these some interesting projects
that people like, its blockchain interoperability
Chainlink. And so people also like projects
like, let’s say Polka-dot or Cosmos (ATOM)
and those the ones that, you know, Erik, you’re
talking about are some of the the darlings
amongst those who do altcoins and believe
that altcoins will rise again. So that’s,
I think why we see Chainlink Rising or ATOM
has a lot of price movements again in the
last few months, been relatively soft. It
was at $5 at one point, now it’s under $3,
$2.50, let’s say. But those blockchain interoperability
projects are really some of the stronger altcoins
as the other things I’d say that people are
looking for in altcoins would be maybe some
of the exchange tokens like BNB Binance coin
and possibly you mentioned Litecoin or other
chains with a lot of really fast transaction
speed. So Stellar would be one of those.
So you probably heard that at the launch of
TON, Telegram’s cryptocurrency, which was
scheduled for the end of October, will be
delayed to April of next year because considered
not compliant with the US regulations. So
Telegram is ready to give back 77% of the
money to investors who don’t agree with the
new deadline. So what does this delay mean
for the investors and what impact is going
to have on the launch?
You know, I sense some maybe this is bad news
for investors. Honestly, I’ve been bearish
on Telegram since early 2018 and quoted as
such in many places, just kind of warning
people away from the project. It always was
an order of magnitude larger than, you know,
are much larger than anything we’ve seen in
crypto. It was the hypiest of hyped ICOs.
If I was getting my money back and I had been
an investor in Telegram, which I’m not, I
would be very happy about it because I am
not bullish on its prospects even when it
launches. So take the win of getting your
money back, I would say, that’s my view on
I would agree it’s very noble of them to give
back the money that, you know, they didn’t
have to. Anyways, yeah, I mean, I’m right
there with you.
I think that this kind of sets a precedent
for the general space. You know, if you actually
are on the radar of the SEC, most these projects
are probably not compliant with FINRA or the
SEC or whoever, whoever their jurisdiction
falls under. So I think the SEC just kind
of targeted Telegram ’cause they got so big,
as Joe said. But I would expect the same results
for any other, you know, any other ICO that
did a similar thing. You know, and is of the
same magnitude. So it kind of tells me that
the SEC is not really concerned about all
these smaller projects. But if you do get
pretty big there it’s certainly going to knock
on the door, which I think is right. And I
think that that’s you know, it makes a lot
But some people are saying that this delay
could actually give an advantage for the investors
that now can negotiate. I mean, the point
is, the idea is that because of the delay,
investors can have more time to maybe negotiate
a better deal with the Telegram regarding
the price that they paid.
If that’s their general goal, they will have
a chance to do that, absolutely. I would just
argue that’s it’s kind of irrelevant at the
end of the day.
You know, whether they get stopped again by
the SEC or whether the project just completely
flops on its face, as do most altcoin projects.
I kind of see it as a blessing in disguise
for a lot of those people.
If you just look at I mean, just sometimes
you have to extrapolate from crypto into,
you know, the real world, even if technology
can be considered a real world. Telegram raised
billions of dollars right. On something that
doesn’t exist, as TON token does not exist.
$1.7 billions. Yes, so if you just extrapolate
that to any other company that does exist,
let’s just say Facebook, when it first raised
a billion, you know, it’s a major company
that had major traction. So maybe they can
renegotiate. Well, we’ll see what the future
holds. But I don’t think that, it had to be
a pretty low valuation for me to be interested,
given that it’s not actually a product or
a thing, yeah.
So do you share the same opinion, the same
kind of negative opinion of Facebook’s Libra?
Well, I mean, Libra is completely different
because Libra is a stablecoin, first of all,
that will be tied to the value of a basket
of fiat currencies like the dollar and other
major currencies. And it’s used mainly for
in network transaction that Facebook and other
companies will be championing. The other stakeholders
will be accepting it. So unlike TON, which
is a blockchain product, it’s not a stablecoin.
Facebook’s Libra, well, I think mass adoption
and yes, TON can be used within Telegram to
send money and things like we see with almost
WeChat. But I think Libra is stable and has
much more promising industry connections and
is doing things in a much different way.
Erik, do you agree?
Yeah, I agree with that.
I mean, Libra is trying to go the legal route
there, trying to be the legitimate route,
whereas TON just kind of went forwards with
it and said, well, we don’t really know what
the SEC is going to say, but we’ll take your
money anyways. So Libra is very important
to me because I do think that Libra success
actually does help Bitcoin. I know a lot of
people are going to really hate that statement,
but let me explain. This last run that we
saw on the upside, a lot of it was kind of
in line with just the optimism around Libra
and around all these partners kind of sign
on with with Libra, of which, of course, of
few just left, right. Some big names as well,
right. Like Visa and PayPal and a few others.
So to me, that’s actually, this is kind of
like a pivotal moment for Libra in a sense,
because it has the opportunity to make itself
antifragile. If it survives this, if it survives,
you know, having these companies leave it
and still goes forwards and does what it do,
does what it set out to do or just, you know,
just gains its legitimacy in actually operating,
I’d say that’s actually pretty damn strong
symbol for the whole space, just cryptocurrencies
in general, because it takes out one more
step from getting from Libra, which is kind
of like a more mainstream mass adopted thing,
I’d imagine, you know, with everyone using
Facebook. And it allows that money to flow
a little bit easier into cryptocurrency, because
from what I understand, Libra actually would
trade against Bitcoin at least a few exchanges
were looking at (?) it from what I’ve heard.
So basically, you see all those supporting
companies leaving the project as a positive
sign because the project itself will be acquiring
some increasing degree of autonomy from from
all of them?
So it’s not a positive thing itself. It’s
a positive thing, if Libra persists and actually
can go ahead with what they want to do. If
they become successful, that makes them antifragile.
And they’re not dependent upon those companies,
which I think a lot of people, myself included,
would put those companies in pretty high regard.
So it’d be very impressive to see Libra succeed
in the face of that, which would in turn make
me more convicted on the strength of the crypto
ecosystem in whole, because it’s all going
be connected essentially. And I’m sure most
people here, like myself, know – once money
enters the space typically doesn’t leave.
Here with us today was Erik Crown, prominent
YouTuber and trader, and Joe DiPasquale, CEO
at BitBull Capital. Thanks a lot, guys, for
participating and see you next time.
Thank you for having us, Giovanni. Yeah, absolutely,
It’s been a pleasure to be with you, Giovanni.
And an absolute pleasure to speak with you,
Joe. This has been amazing, man. So thank
I agree, Erik, I’m looking forward to continue